外债积累对加纳经济增长的影响

发布时间：2023-06-03 03:13

　　本文试图分析加纳的外债积累及其对经济增长的影响。为了全面了解其对经济的影响,我们将对1980-2017年这38年期间的信息进行仔细的实证检验。选择这一时期是为了涵盖后债务减免时代之后的时期,而且加纳的外债存量在过去10年中一直在增加。外债有促进经济增长的潜力;然而,缺乏审慎的债务管理框架可能会适得其反。这方面的文献常常产生相互矛盾的结果。一些文献假设外债积累对经济增长有负面影响,而另一些文献则预测有正面影响,有些文献甚至认为这两个变量之间根本不存在相关性。学者们提出了各种理论来解释外债问题。这一理论包括双重差距分析,解释了经济发展是有关于投资的函数,然而这种投资在国民储蓄率不足的情况下是无法促进经济发展的。本文利用1980-2017年加纳国内生产总值、外债存量、外债支付和汇率的时间序列数据,实证检验了外债积累对加纳经济增长的影响。首先,本文采用的估计策略包括增广Dickey-Fuller(ADF)检验、向量误差修正和Johansen协整评价,用于检验1980-2017年间变量之间的因果关系。第二阶段的结果表明,从长期来看加纳国内生产总值增长率与外债之间存在着显著的正相关关系,表明外债对...

【文章页数】：75 页

【学位级别】：硕士

【文章目录】：
DEDICATIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
摘要
ABSTRACT
ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Background to the study
    1.2 Statement of Problem
    1.3 Objectives
    1.4 Research Hypothesis
    1.5 Significance of the Study
    1.6 Scope of the Study
    1.7 Data Sources
    1.8 Organization of the Study
    1.9 Contribution and Limitation
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.0 Introduction
    2.1 Theoretical Literature Review
        2.1.1 Theoretical Perspective on External Debt
    2.2 Factors and Theories of External Debt on the Economy growth
        2.2.1 Financing gap theory
        2.2.2 Determinants of rising external debts
        2.2.3 Direct Effect of Debt Hypothesis(DEDH)
        2.2.4 Direct Effect of Debt Hypothesis(DEDH)
        2.2.5 s(DOH)Debt Overhang Hypotheses
        2.2.6 The Ricardian Equivalence theorem
    2.3 Recent Empirical Review
        2.3.1 External debt and economic growth
    2.4 Overview of Literature
CHAPTER THREE GHANA’S EXTERNAL DEBTS OVERVIEW
    3.0 Introduction
    3.1 Ghana’s Economic and External Debts Discussion
        3.1.1 Debt cancellation but continued dependence
        3.1.2 Debt cancellation under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative
        3.1.3 How Ghana want into HIPC
    3.2 EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
        3.2.1 Total external debt
        3.2.2 Source of funding
    3.3 External debt stocks(percentage of GDP)for Ghana
    3.4 Ghana Debt policy
        3.4.1 Debt Repayment
        3.4.2 The growth in Ghana’s external debt
        3.4.3 Domestic Debt
    3.5 How Ghana Debt are distributed by sector loan from World Bank
    3.6 Public External Debt in Africa
    3.7 East African Community Debt Situation
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
    4.0 Introduction
    4.1 Research Design
    4.2 Estimation Technique
        4.2.1 Unit Root Test
        4.2.2 Co-integration
        4.2.3 Vector Error Correction Model
        4.2.4 Causality Test
    4.3 Model Specification
        4.3.1 The Model
    4.4 Conclusion
CHAPTER FIVE DATA ANALYSIS
    5.0 Introduction
    5.1 Descriptive statistics
    5.2 Testing for Stationarity
    5.3 Johansen Co-integration test
    5.4 Error Correction Estimates Using Vector Error Correction Model
    5.5 Granger Causality Test
    5.6 Conclusion
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    6.0 Introduction
    6.1 Conclusions
    6.2 Summary of Findings
    6.3 Recommendation
REFERENCES



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