基于活动链的城市居民出行行为模型及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 01:17

本文选题：活动链 + 燃油附加费　；参考：《华中科技大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：本论文使用基于活动链的建模方法,研究了燃油附加费政策和在线零售方式对居民活动链与出行行为的影响,以及基于活动方法的交通悖论问题。研究结果为评价燃油附加费政策和在线零售方式对城市交通与居民行为的影响提供理论依据,同时,为避免交通基础设施投资中出现悖论现象提供分析工具。首先,研究了多方式交通网络中燃油附加费政策对居民出行活动链的影响。以社会福利最大化为目标,在一个多方式时变交通网络中,建立燃油附加费和公共交通服务优化模型。该模型显式地考虑了燃油附加费和公共交通发车频率对居民出行成本的影响,用户根据出行成本和活动收益选择全天的活动链、出发时间、活动时间长度、出行路径和交通方式,实现自身净效用最大化。设计了启发式算法来求解该模型,得到最优的燃油附加费和公共交通发车频率。该研究可以揭示燃油附加费政策的实施对居民出行活动、系统能源消耗以及社会福利的影响,同时比较了政策实施前后,居民活动持续时间、系统燃油消耗以及社会总福利的变化情况。其次,研究了在线购物方式对居民出行活动链的影响,提出的模型考虑了两类零售商,一类是在线零售商,一类是实体店零售商。居民可以根据自身效用选择购物方式,在确定购物方式之后,选择全天的活动链、活动持续时间和出行路径,并确定购物量。在线零售方式出现之前,居民全部选择到实体店进行购物,每个居民最大化自身净效用,从而达到用户均衡。当在线零售方式出现之后,居民可以选择实体店购物或网络在线购物,以便最大化自身的净效用,从而达到新的用户均衡。对比了在线零售方式出现前后,交通系统中总交通量、居民活动安排、商品价格的变化情况,并分析了政府的税收政策对居民活动、实体店零售商、在线零售商、交通系统总交通量的影响。最后,在城市交通网络中,使用基于活动链的建模方法探讨Braess悖论现象。论文使用基于活动链的建模方法和基于出行的建模方法对居民行为分别进行建模,居民关于活动链、出发时间、出行路径、活动持续时间的选择均衡问题被转化为一个等价的变分不等式模型。数值例子表明当交通供给或活动边际效用发生变化时,基于活动链的模型和基于出行的模型在Braess悖论现象的结果是不同的。在基于活动链的模型中,随着活动边际效用地变大,出现悖论的公共交通发车频率的范围会变小。此外,给出了引起交通悖论的区域,这个区域是由活动边际效用和公共交通发车频率共同决定。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the effects of fuel surcharge policy and online retail mode on residents' activity chain and travel behavior, as well as the problem of traffic paradox based on activity method, are studied by using activity-based chain modeling method. The results provide a theoretical basis for evaluating the impact of fuel surcharge policy and online retail mode on urban traffic and residents' behavior, and provide an analytical tool for avoiding paradoxical phenomena in transportation infrastructure investment. Firstly, the effect of fuel surcharge policy on residents' travel activity chain in multi-mode transportation network is studied. In order to maximize social welfare, an optimization model of fuel surcharge and public transport service is established in a multi-mode time-varying transport network. The model explicitly considers the effect of fuel surcharge and public transportation departure frequency on the travel cost of residents. According to the travel cost and activity income, users choose the whole day activity chain, departure time, activity time length. Travel path and traffic mode, realize its own net utility maximization. A heuristic algorithm is designed to solve the model and obtain the optimal fuel surcharge and public transport departure frequency. This study can reveal the impact of fuel surcharge policy on residents' travel activities, system energy consumption and social welfare, and compare the duration of residents' activities before and after the implementation of the policy. Changes in system fuel consumption and total social welfare. Secondly, the influence of online shopping mode on residents' travel activity chain is studied. The proposed model considers two types of retailers, one is online retailer, the other is physical store retailer. The residents can choose the shopping way according to their own utility. After determining the shopping mode, they can choose the whole day activity chain, activity duration and travel path, and determine the amount of shopping. Before the emergence of online retail, all residents choose to shop in physical stores, and each resident maximizes their own net utility, thus achieving user balance. When the online retail mode appears, residents can choose physical shop or online shopping, in order to maximize their own net utility, so as to achieve a new user balance. This paper compares the changes of total traffic volume, residents' activity arrangement and commodity price in the transportation system before and after the emergence of online retail mode, and analyzes the tax policy of the government on residents' activities, physical store retailers, online retailers, etc. The influence of the total traffic volume of the transportation system. Finally, in urban transportation networks, the Braess paradox is discussed by using the method of activity chain modeling. In this paper, the activity chain based modeling method and the trip based modeling method are used to model the behavior of the residents, and the residents are concerned about the activity chain, departure time, travel path. The selective equilibrium problem of activity duration is transformed into an equivalent variational inequality model. Numerical examples show that when the traffic supply or marginal utility of activity changes, the results of the Braess paradox are different between the model based on activity chain and the model based on travel. In the model based on activity chain, the range of departure frequency of public transportation with paradox will become smaller as the marginal utility of activity becomes larger. In addition, the region causing traffic paradox is given, which is determined by the marginal utility of activity and the frequency of public transportation.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F713.55

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