基于约束性元胞自动机的京津冀城镇空间扩张模拟与分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 19:12

本文关键词：基于约束性元胞自动机的京津冀城镇空间扩张模拟与分析　出处：《首都师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对城镇扩张过程中空间形态变化规律的把握程度,是能否提高城镇规划水平的关键因素之一。京津冀地区作为我国三大经济区域之一,在区域经济中占据重要地位。作为我国北方地区经济发展的重要增长极,近年来较快的城镇扩张速度已经影响到了该地区的可持续发展,针对这种情况,急需一套可参考的政策措施或工具来预测该地区城镇从现状到规划末期各个时期的城镇发展状况,从而对规划进行调整。本研究借鉴了北京市城市规划设计研究院基于城市增长理论和约束性元胞自动机(constrained cellular automata, constrained CA)构建的北京城市空间发展分析模型(BUDEM, an urban growth simulation model using CA for Beijing metropolitan area),以京津冀地区作为研究区域,以CA模型为基础,以Logistic回归和单一参数循环方法(Monoloop)为分析方法,建立了京津冀城镇空间发展分析模型(BUDEM-JJJ, an urban growth simulation model using CA for Jing-Jin-Ji),利用2000年-2005年和2005年-2010年两个历史阶段的城镇建设用地对模型进行了参数识别,并对两个时段的城镇扩张驱动力进行了对比分析；同时利用此模型对京津冀区域2020年规划末期城镇建设用地布局和2030年的城镇形态进行了不同情景下的模拟,科学的分析了不同发展情景(Scenario)下京津冀地区城镇空间发展格局的变化,实现了约束性CA模型在京津冀区域的应用和验证,可以为京津冀地区的城镇规划建设和管理工作提供决策的参考依据。
[Abstract]:To grasp the extent of urban expansion spatial variation of morphology in the process is one of the key factors to improve the level of urban planning. The Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as one of the three major economic regions in China, occupies an important position in the regional economy. As the economic development in northern China, the important growth pole in recent years, urban expansion speed has affected the sustainable development of the area, in view of this situation, in urgent need of a set of reference policies and tools to predict the urban area from the current situation to plan at the end of each period of urban development, so as to adjust the planning. The research on the Beijing city planning and Design Institute of city growth theory and constraint based on cellular automaton (constrained cellular automata, constrained CA) of Beijing city construction and development of the spatial analysis model (BUDEM, an urban growth simulatio N model using CA for Beijing metropolitan area), the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as the study area, based on CA model, using Logistic regression and single parameter method (Monoloop) analysis method, established the urban spatial development in Beijing Tianjin Hebei analysis model (BUDEM-JJJ, an urban growth simulation model using CA for Jing-Jin-Ji), by 2000 -2005 and 2005 -2010 of the two historical stages of urban construction land is carried out on the model parameter identification, and the two periods of urban expansion driving force are analyzed; at the same time, using the model of urban construction at the end of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region in 2020 and 2030 the planning layout of urban morphology were simulated under different scenarios. The scientific analysis of the different development scenarios (Scenario) changes of urban space under the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region development pattern, the constrained CA model in Beijing Tianjin Hebei The application and verification of the region can provide a reference for the planning, construction and management of the cities and towns in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

【学位授予单位】：首都师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.113

【参考文献】